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Political Stuff

Discussion in 'Social Discussion' started by electrolyte, Sep 26, 2016.

  1. Horse Feathers

    Horse Feathers
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    There's no future in time travel.

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  2. DCI

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    So after a delightfully boring Christmas break, it's time to kick off a new year that's likely to be historically crazy. Now's the time to get in your 2018 predictions if you want a shot at end-of-the-year-told-ya-so-glory. I would have done mine a couple of days ago, but I've had a pretty nasty fever since New Year's Eve. I'm ready now.

    But first...

    It was originally a top 5 list, but apparently that's the limit, and I had to make room for poop tweets. Sorry Frederick Douglass.








    The beginning of the year is going to feature some big legislative fights that have been getting put off, but can't be put off for much longer. DACA expires in March, and CHIP funds will run out in a lot of states after January. There is a decent amount of bipartisan will to address both of these issues, but Democrats probably won't want to support any spending bill that includes any funding for a border wall, which is something that the President is demanding.

    CHIP sort of has to be saved one way or another, but imo, there isn't going to be any DACA for border wall deal unless it's full of a bunch of other stuff that makes it such an amazing deal for Democrats that they can't refuse, which isn't very likely. I think that the only way that this impasse is cleared is if the President accepts some kind of "border security" funding for things like high tech surveillance, border agents, etc. Democrats just aren't going to budge much at all because it's such an inflammatory issue to their supporters, who also happen to hate the President in general.

    I don't think there will be much of any major legislation this year. The idea that there is going to be some significant entitlement reform is a complete fantasy. Maybe there could be some sort of humble infrastructure package, but even that would probably be tough. Democrats have no political incentive to vote for much of anything, and a decent amount of Republicans in unsafe seats are going to be distancing themselves from the President, more so the closer that the elections get.

    edit: There is supposed to be a vote in the Senate at some point for the Alexander-Murray bill to help stabilize the health care market. It seems like a fairly reasonable bill that could get a decent amount of bipartisan support, but it's not clear if the President would actually sign it if it did pass both chambers. Back in October he said he didn't support it because he thought it was a bailout for insurance companies. Side note, a funny thing happened when I did a Google search to try to find out the President's position:

    [​IMG]


    I think that the special counsel's Russia/Trump investigation won't be over any time soon and is going to end up completely drowning everything else out by the end of the year. It's obviously hard to know, since none of us know what actually happened, but personally, I don't think that all these people lied about their contacts with Russia for no reason. I don't think Mike Flynn lied to the FBI for no reason. I don't think the President tried to protect Mike Flynn for no reason. I don't think Flynn got an amazingly sweet deal for no reason, and I don't think the President is trying to undermine the credibility of the FBI, the DOJ, and this investigation for no reason. I think it defies common sense to believe at this point that there won't be more to come out of this that's bigger than anything that we've seen so far.

    I also think that given the politicization of all of this, the special counsel is going to be mindful of how their investigation unfolds in public, meaning that if and when there are future indictments, it will probably always be a pretty big deal. I have no idea whether or not they are actually supposed to make these sort of considerations, but it's hard to imagine that they won't in this situation.

    Who knows whether or not the President would flip out and do something crazy if it were to become clear to him that he is going to get busted, but one thing that I am pretty confident about is that if there is evidence that he and/or people in his inner circle committed crimes, there isn't going to be any twisting out of it. All of this noise about anti-Trump bias and Hillary Clinton is fine and dandy for FOX and Friends or Congressmen in super red districts to moan about, but it would melt pretty quickly in the overall public's view in the face of actual evidence. I think the current Congress would absolutely hold the President accountable if either he did something to end the current investigation or was proven to have committed some sort of significant crime, and if they didn't, the current majority party would be completely obliterated in the mid terms, resulting in a Congress that would.

    I still think Democrats will retake the house in the mid terms, but not the Senate. It's not exactly a very bold prediction at this point, given that Republicans are currently being crushed in generic Congressional polling. In the absence of some unforeseen triumph for the President that shoots his approval way up, his party is very unlikely not to lose a lot of seats. It would still take a very epic wipe out for Republicans to lose the Senate, because about 3/4 of the Senate seats up in 2018 are Democrat held seats. It's possible, but very unlikely. Personally, I hope that we will have a split Congress, because I'm tired of seeing people push shitty 50-vote legislation through the Senate.

    I'm not even going to bother to try to make any foreign policy predictions, other than that eventually all of this idiotic trolling is going to produce a real consequence. As I was writing this post, the President tweets out this:



    Top shelf Presidenting.
     
    #2442 DCI, Jan 2, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2018
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  3. jklmnop

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    data sanitation engineer

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  4. jenaling

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    Captain Ding Dong McGoo

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    Slow Burn is amazing. I've been loving it.
     
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  5. DCI

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    Wow. Steve Bannon and Donald Trump furiously throwing each other under the bus. I agree with both of them.
     
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  6. micky

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    will work for cheese

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    Trump is going after Bannon hard and still bragging about himself "winning". What a shock.
     
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    #2446 micky, Jan 3, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2018
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  7. jan

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    and now Manafort sues Mueller

    :eek:
     
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  8. jklmnop

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    The knives are coming out...

    [​IMG]

     
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  9. DCI

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    I don't know what they are trying to accomplish, but from what I understand, this basically has no chance of success. It's true that there is a lot of evidence against Manafort that didn't come from the current Russia/Trump investigation, but it also didn't come from some random unwarranted investigation launched by the special counsel. Iirc the FBI had already been investigating Manafort for years, so all of that information was shared with the special counsel that was also investigating him for more relevant reasons.
     
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  10. micky

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    will work for cheese

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  11. jan

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  12. MinkyMona

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    Breaker of Bad News

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    Anyone reading the book yet? I've been listening to it on Audible all morning.
     
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  13. Horse Feathers

    Horse Feathers
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    There's no future in time travel.

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    Well, okay then. ;)

     
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  14. jan

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    The rats are jumping ship.

     
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  15. DCI

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    It's pretty sad to see Lindsey Graham and Chuck Grassley abusing their committee positions to help provide political cover for the President. I expect that sort of thing from house tools like Devon Nunes and Jim Jordan, but I thought these guys were a little more serious than this.

    It would be nice if Congress as a whole would wake up to the fact that they are losing all credibility with the public wrt to their ability to perform their oversight duties.
     
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  16. Pleco

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    Rum connoisseur

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    Hey don't blame us just because we see the writing on the wall.
     
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  17. jklmnop

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    Uh, why couldn't he just walk down the hall?

    Edit: this is from yesterday.

    ...

    Seriously this is all becoming too much
     
    #2457 jklmnop, Jan 6, 2018
    Last edited: Jan 6, 2018
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  18. jan

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    I wasn't thinking dementia - but I'm beginning to. There are so many signs of problems - clearly he has lost skills over the years. Putting him on camera - he doesn't have to respond to the press (and that saves him). He just has to 'read' in front of the camera. But even that was difficult.

    We've been through this before with Reagan - and no one said a word during his presidency - even when the signs were there :(
     
  19. jan

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    I was pretty shocked, too. Our founders didn't realize how corrupt power (and party) could make us :(
     
  20. Pleco

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    I just had to share this because it's beyond parody. "And being, like, really smart".